Cumulus Capital
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Cumulus Capital Details
We are a seed stage sport wagering investment fund. We strictly do not perceive ourselves as gamblers. We perceive ourselves as investors. The modelling process begins with the extraction of fundamental variables relevant to the sport in question. The data being used is examined for accuracy and purity before it is placed into the databases used for the model construction. Once the data is in the relevant database, mathematical transformations are applied to the data to allow the prediction models to be trained and built. The techniques applied to the organised data are extremely extensive and dissimilar as they come from wide areas of study. Not only are they derived from a study area of statistics but also one of artificial intelligence, or what is more widely known as 'machine learning'. Once the models have been successfully trained and are capable of producing profitable predictions, the process does not stop there. This is because any single prediction is only one possible outcome out of several millions which could statistically occur in reality. Therefore, any single event being betting on (most likely one of the 3 mentioned above) is simulated using the prediction as a base and allowing for the discrepency in possible occurrences. Finally, out predictions and probabilities are taken to the marketplace. In order for an event to be wagered, our wagering systems must determine the probability of an even occurring higher than the one the market is implying. This is known as a 'positive expectation' bet and this is where all of the money is made on all events wagered on. Once the model is being used in the market, a Bayesian decision making framework to constantly review how well the model is working. We are currently not allowing any investment until 2017. Please refer to our website for more detail and visit the 'Investors' tab to subscribe to our results on a weekly basis.
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